Although the US tariff announcement on 2 April adds some clarity to the administration’s stance, the situation remains fluid. 

All other factors being equal, higher tariffs and other barriers to trade are likely to slow economic activity and lift inflation rates—at least in the short run. 

In the intermediate to longer term, however—the latter period being the most important one for investors—trading partners are likely to adjust their policies. Representatives of affected countries are likely to negotiate with one another. Further policy adjustments may follow. 

Companies and consumers may reconsider their saving, spending and investment options. Central banks may reconsider their policies in pursuit of sustainable economic growth and stable prices. In short, a dynamic global economy almost certainly will adjust. For investors, uncertainty may rise and fall—but it is likely to remain.

Vanguard continually analyses multiple factors to formulate macro- and microeconomic perspectives that help inform our investment management practices around the world. 

We have extensive experience effectively managing investors’ assets through geopolitical events and other market uncertainty. We leverage five decades of investment and risk management expertise to navigate such complex scenarios.

Cautioning investors against tactical portfolio changes

Given potential tariff countermeasures and their effects, Vanguard believes it would be imprudent to attempt to identify specific investment implications immediately following the announcement.

Financial markets may respond quickly to developments as they unfold in the near term, but we would caution long-term investors against reacting with tactical or short-term changes to well-considered investment plans.

We will continue to monitor evolving economic conditions and share our economic and market perspectives in a timely fashion.

Investment risk information

The value of investments, and the income from them, may fall or rise and investors may get back less than they invested.

Important information

For professional investors only (as defined under the MiFID II Directive) investing for their own account (including management companies (fund of funds) and professional clients investing on behalf of their discretionary clients). In Switzerland for professional investors only. Not to be distributed to the public. 

The information contained herein is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell securities in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation is against the law, or to anyone to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation, or if the person making the offer or solicitation is not qualified to do so. The information does not constitute legal, tax, or investment advice. You must not, therefore, rely on it when making any investment decisions. 

The information contained herein is for educational purposes only and is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell investments. 

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Issued in Switzerland by Vanguard Investments Switzerland GmbH.

Issued by Vanguard Asset Management, Limited which is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority. 

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© 2025 Vanguard Asset Management, Limited. All rights reserved.